The Lighthouse | ...place of deep darkness and lies, and if you will light one candle of truth, you will dispel the darkness

Calling States Before Others

By Erik Zimerman On November 4, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Way before others, including Fox News, just like in 2016. For Trump MO OK IN KY WV TN MS AL ND SD WY UT KS MO TX Florida 8:00 PM EST time Nov 4 2020 Georgia 8:20 PM EST Nov 4 2020 North Carolina 8:42 PM EST Nov 4 2020 Virginia 9:39 EST PM Nov 4 2020 – Call Pending Ohio 10:00 EST PM Nov 4 2020 Arizona 10:50 EST PM Nov 4 2020 Iowa 11:25 EST PM Nov 4 2020 Wisconsin 1:36 AM EST Nov 4 2020 Pennsylvania 1:40 EST PM Nov 4 2020 – Pending call. The 3 to 1 Democrat to GOP early voter ballot request, is not enough overcome the large lead, even if they had not been counted at all. In all likelihood, some were counted. It’s going to be close. 2:00 AM EST If I was a betting man, I’d say 75% Trump has the race.. but we call things based on a certain level of certainty, not a bet. so we can’t do it yet. The Situation. It is not over yet. Stay keen, verify your votes online. Report any issues to the state and the party you intended to vote for (in [...]

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A Polling Question

By Erik Zimerman On November 4, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Much has been written and discussed about polling. It seems evident that there is a “house effect” and much of the mainstream polling, for various reasons, skews a few points to the left (towards Biden in this case). It remains to be seen if this skew is enough, and in the right states to change the outcome. Trafalgar Group, which was most accurate in 2016 by far, and arguably likewise in 2018 races, has Trump up in critical battleground states. One problem may be the large amount of votes that were cast before the race tightened due to the massive numbers of early votes, encouraged by the Democratic party as part of their coronavirus obsession. without getting into too much detail, Trafalgar’s Calhoun, try to compensane for the shy Trump voter. It is pretty evident that the environment which may have caused a shy Trump voter in 2016 is only amplified in 2020. The entire situation is amplified. However, it is being missed that the left doubled down on these tactics rather than reign them in. There are segments of the population that can go from not admitting to a pollster that they will vote for Trump, to actually not [...]

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The Real Reason the Left doesn’t Care about Biden Corruption Revelations

By Erik Zimerman On November 3, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

The truth is very simple, though not often heard. It is not that they think the allegations are made up, or are Russian disinformation. They have as little evidence of the Russian disinformation charge, as they did that Trump was somehow a Russian agent. Namely none. If they did, the mainstream media and left would be pushing that story instead of hiding from it. They level the charge only casually as they try to nonchalantly switch subjects. In fact, ironically levelling this charge blatantly is what led to Tony Bobulinsky, Hunter Biden’s partner, to come out on record, and provide one of the most damning pieces of evidence against Hunter and Joe Biden. A patriotic, yet non-partisan American veteran and businessman was insulted at being called a traitor when he is anything but. For you to watch, very compelling, AFTER you finish the article of course. The evidence already available on the public record is overwhelming, the allegations are true, and they point to influence peddling at best, to treason at worse. They are certainly at the very least worthy of further investigation. Some, including Rudy Giuliani, the legendary prosecutor and 9-11 era very successful Mayor of New York City [...]

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Remember the Inspiring Donald Trump Endorsements

By Erik Zimerman On November 3, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

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Why Jo Jorgensen should be Graceful, and Perhaps Critical

By Erik Zimerman On November 2, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

With the election down to a couple of states that seem to be stressfully in play, Pennsylvania and Michigan chief among them, we see the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen scoring anywhere between 1 to 2 percent in the Pennsylvania polls, and a bit higher on average in Michigan. She also is polling significantly in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and other states. In several states, including some of the aforementioned, she was polling higher than the Trump-Biden spread. Her numbers have shrunk in recent polling since many of her supporters already know what I posit in this article, but this piece is for Mrs. Jorgensen and for those that still don’t. Admittedly I am far from an expert on Jorgensen. Her positions alone command admiration and respect, and from a brief review, I am humbly in agreement with the vast majority of them. I wish her and her supporters much health and success. However, the following must be stated. Polling these numbers at this stage of the race is crazy! Put plainly, the numbers are sufficient to potentially cost Donald Trump and the GOP the Presidential race in certain battleground states (and thus nationally), and they are infinitely too small [...]

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Early Voting Data a Good Sign for Trump and the GOP

By Erik Zimerman On November 1, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Of course, it must be said that early voting data can be a very poor predictor of election results. Firstly, the the breakdown is by voter party registration (in states where there is party registration and this data is available), and not necessarily by whom the voter actually voted for. It is specifically weak in this regard when it comes to Independents or non affiliated voters (who did they vote for? That remains the question). Secondly, early voting comes in at various times and is counted at various times so comparing results from one election to another is difficult. However, those caveats aside, it is still something that we can look at for some general trends. The mainstream polls are predicting a very large Biden victory, and we are also seeing very large early voting ballot numbers compared to previous years. This is in large part due to the coronavirus pandemic fears, that have many voters weary of going to the voting booth. Democrats have been pushing for more mail-in ballots than Republicans who typically prefer to “see” their ballot going in. All of these factors put together, plus others, may have many expecting large Democratic voter ballot leads in [...]

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Black Community Economics under Trump – Democrats Still Don’t Own your Votes

By Erik Zimerman On October 28, 2020 · 2 Comments · In Against the Wind

And a bit of “I told you So”. I wrote a short piece back in 2016 about the economic consequences of leftist policy on some of the communities that ironically support these policies the most. Specifically, the average black voter has been misinformed into blindly voting for Democrats year after year, despite their worsening conditions, and always believing that the Republican candidate, without any evidence, is racist. This may be beginning to change however as more and more voters of all colors, start thinking for themselves. Democratic US President LBJ, who was not one to mince words, is often quoted as saying, among many other racist things: “I’ll have those n*s voting Democratic for 200 years”. He may or may not have said that exactly (if you are interested in finding out, this and this are a good start), but he certainly had a lot of success with the stratagem. In 2016, I urged black readers to realize the Democratic party does not own them, nor their votes, simply because they can scream “racism” at anyone who opposes their failed socialist policies. Rich white people, tend to do well with either party in power, they in many cases prefer leftist [...]

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The New Crime of Infection. POTUS and the Media’s Strawman.

By Erik Zimerman On October 5, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

For my original piece immediately after the announcement. The recent turn of events are potentially bad news for the left and anti-Trump groups. The natural response to any person falling ill is compassion and support, this is especially true when it’s the President (that doesn’t mean you should change your ideology or vote, but some people tend to do that). More importantly, a 73 year old man that is a bit heavy, easily getting over the virus that is supposed to be the scourge of mankind is not what the left wants us to see. They want panic, riots, and endless lockdowns, at least until they are in power. Then poverty and government dependence will do. So, the spin started aggressively and immediately. First they doubled down on panic. Ridiculous headlines about chaos in our government, postponing the election, all because the President caught a mild flu . The truth of course is that they would not be so angry at the prospective change of power, the replacement of someone they hate so much, be it with Pence or Pelosi. What they feared of course is that no such change was going to happen nor be necessary. Here is some [...]

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POTUS and FLOTUS Test Positive for Covid-19. The Dangers and Opportunity

By Erik Zimerman On October 2, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Just a few hours ago, the president broke the news; about 2 hours after he posted the following regarding Hope Hicks: Hope Hicks, who has been working so hard without even taking a small break, has just tested positive for Covid 19. Terrible! The First Lady and I are waiting for our test results. In the meantime, we will begin our quarantine process!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020 Firstly, we of course wish the President, the First Lady (and Hope Hicks) a speedy and full recovery. A dose of plasma (donor or synthetic at this point), and they will be fine, Gd willing. They would also of course likely be fine without treatment. And if there is an unlikely case of deterioration in the lower respiratory system, some RLF-100 (Avipdatdil) and/or steroids will do the trick. If as President, he can sidestep the various socialist laws which prevent ordinary citizens from using obviously safe and effective treatments, then he and the First Lady should be fine, even in the unlikely case that these were needed (though I’d recommend a dose of plasma right away just in case). On the upside, thank Gd President Trump tested positive thus far [...]

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Chris Wallace’s lack of impartiality as Debate Moderator.

By Erik Zimerman On September 30, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

For my main reaction on the first 2020 Presidential Debate, see this article. For the most shocking examples of the lack of impartiality of the moderator Chris Wallace, these examples should suffice. Wallace insisted on a very long segment about the triviality of Trump’s tax returns. There is no allegation of tax evasion, and obviously as a businessman Trump did not set his own tax rate nor tax rules, so it is no more than an attempt to appeal to people’s jealousy about how much or how little taxes a rich man paid. On the other hand, Wallace urged Trump to get back to the important issues the American people want to hear when Trump raised Hunter Biden’s allegations of corruption. Of course Trump had to raise them since Wallace never would have. Here, Trump wasn’t picking on a 16 year old son of the candidate for wearing braces, as Wallace tried to paint it, but rather raising very troubling issues of corruption at the highest levels, involving many millions of dollars, Joe Biden, his adult son, Ukrainian oligarchs and Chinese communist party officials. Joe was free to deny these, explain them or respond to them as he saw fit, [...]

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First 2020 Presidential Debate – The Right Answers (and why Telemundo viewers had Trump winning)

By Erik Zimerman On September 30, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

I must admit that the first Presidential US Debate in 2020 was painful to watch (much of this has to do with the lack of ideology today in public discourse, despite what we are constantly told about record polarization, and general decay of traditional western values, but all that is for another time). Trump and his team clearly agreed upon a failed strategy, though Trump seemed to notice this and adapt as the debate went on. Regardless, the damage was done. The media will undoubtedly report that Biden “won” the debate. He did no such thing, if winning a debate means what it typically means; that is using arguments, hopefully logical arguments, and evidence to prove your position(s) correct and that of your opponent incorrect. Biden said nothing of use, nor did he prove anything of any kind. He did not seem very well informed, and had a few clearly rehearsed typical Democratic party platitudes to spell out; and even for these, he needed to constantly check his notes. Democratic party platitudes….You know, the meaningless sentences where you use words like “infrastructure”, “innovative”, “sustainable”, “plan” and big numbers with decimal points in them like in “2.7 billion dollars” and “29.8 [...]

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Is this Authentic? If so, RFL-100 works

By Erik Zimerman On August 19, 2020 · Add Comment · In Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

If this leaked document is authentic, RFL-100, Aviptadil, seems to work. Of course, a simple plasma transfer can easily kill Covid19, and a vaccine or two that have been around since a few weeks after the virus was discovered work as well (and everyone is waiting for Vaccine government approval, and NOT as we are told waiting for a Vaccine (as if it was being worked on in a lab every day)). But in case a patient is left to deteriorate to the point damage to the lungs is the issue, it seems Relief Therapeutics, which in part works to limit inflammation and the cytokine storm, and perhaps even to limit viral replication in the lung cells, may be a very effective treatment. Previous data was already quite promising, but this document makes it a home run. The question is, is it authentic? If it is not, though I have not had a chance to analyze it carefully yet, it would be a very impressive forgery due to many factors clearly evident in the document. A further question, from an economic perspective, is what would be the value. VIP is a naturally occurring peptide. That aside, this virus will soon [...]

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DGAZF A Cornered Market?

By Erik Zimerman On August 12, 2020 · Add Comment · In Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

Today was interesting indeed. The market is an interesting place for sure, and on its best days not for the faint of heart. Yet today, a few of us witnessed and/or weathered a real storm. Unfortunately, few if any of us, saw any gains from the cataclysmic movement of DGAZF today, because few if any folks had any shares. The gain was among a small cabal that had the market cornered. Perhaps not altogether legally either. In short, DGAZF had a NAV, or more accurately an indicative value of about $110-$130 dollars per share today, and traded at over $25,000 a share. Meaning it easily was trading at 200 times its value. DGAZF, completely disconnecting from its intrinsic value. Courtesy of @EricBalchunas There is a strong message in this piece for Credit Suisse, who ultimately promised investors in their ETN, whether holders of long or short positions, that, that DGAZF will closely track the Index it ought to track. DGAZF (VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN) originally DGAZ before recently delisting, is an ETN which gains investors exposure in Natural Gas, more accurately 3 times its inverse (specifically 3x the Inverse of the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER). Like [...]

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They Know Not, Yet They Rule

By Erik Zimerman On August 2, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

(and they rule by our command, at our command, the West is nothing but Democracy) Earlier Posts: Coronavirus April 2020 Updates A Logical Perspective Continued. Corona virus 2020 Update Have wanted to write an additional update to my series of posts on the Covid-19 pandemic, the hysteria and misinformation surrounding, and the persisting government lockdowns wreaking havoc in the West, but unfortunately did not have the opportunity to do so or time. The initial idea for the update would have been 2 months ago or so, and would have proven quite far-sighted. But no matter, my articles from 4 and 5 months ago, have been in many cases tragically correct, and I do not shy away from saying that gradually and painfully, concepts that were spelled out in my posts from very early on and at the time being repeated by none that I could tell, have been appearing in the headlines… piecemeal, gradually, reluctantly and painfully but several of the concepts I proposed are now even commonly held opinions. They were not at the time. In any event, the time I so eagerly covet to write my piece is still not available to me. A reserve duty stint does [...]

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Coronavirus April 2020 Updates

By Erik Zimerman On April 3, 2020 · 1 Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Note: Includes April 5 and further updates sections below. Please refer to the previous post, A Logical Perspective Continued. Corona virus 2020 Update for a full discussion on the subject, which began here 3 articles and over one month ago. The data has begun coming in, the data that will help prove or disprove what has been claimed here all along. As it becomes available however, it seems unbelievable that more members of the media are not picking up on this. Is the public? Does anyone notice that we are watching our own growing test curves in panic? Take the latest US daily figures. The is US is reporting having ramped up to 100 thousand tests per day, and about 30 thousand new COVID-19 cases per day. That is 30% of the tested population! If numbers are anywhere near correct, it is shocking. The data is very spotty, since states such as California are reporting significant backlogs as well. Many people are still waiting days to receive their results. However, if they are anywhere in the ballpark, that is daily positive test results compared to the daily test rate, the results are striking. And unless daily test results are a [...]

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A Logical Perspective Continued. Corona virus 2020 Update

By Erik Zimerman On March 30, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Notes: Includes “EndGame” Section. And additional Update Sections. For a background on the 2020 outbreak, feel free to refer to my first article on the topic, The Truth and some Perspective on Coronavirus and the 2020 Hysteria, written very early in the western media experience of this outbreak, and for a much longer and more detailed look at the virus’ death rates and the hysteria and panic surrounding it, my update, Covid-19 Update. The weakest virus known to man is highly recommended. Now, with some more days of significant data available, I would simply like to provide an update on some of this, without much background, as it is provided in the previous articles, and some additional data supporting some of my other assertions which was not available at the time. The data is quite interesting, still not surprising, and in stark contrast to almost everything being reported. First, let us look at perhaps the most important graphs I provided in my previous update. they were done with data approximately dated March 15th and March 18th. For March 15 data, the following overview was presented: The idea being, that much unlike what you were being told, the MORE cases a [...]

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Covid-19 Update. The Weakest Virus known to Man

By Erik Zimerman On March 21, 2020 · 8 Comments · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Note: New March 30th 2020 Update at the end. More than ten days since I wrote my first article on the issue (a shorter read for those interested). Perhaps unsurprisingly, not only do we now have more data supporting my findings, but the hysteria has only grown by leaps and bounds previously unimaginable, saying something about the state of modern society. The entire world, the western world in particular, finds itself paralyzed, in the business of creating massive self-imposed economic disruptions, for no reason at all. Not only is the COVID-19 virus not nearly dangerous enough to warrant such measures, but dizzyingly more stupefying, the containment effort has been a complete failure and sham for a long time. The virus is extremely widespread, the official cases a fraction of the true infections. The virus has already spread wildly across the world, and is either nearing or has reached its peak in many countries and will be diminishing ever more rapidly, as has happened in China and South Korea already. We often are told we are fighting an invisible enemy. It is more true than people realize, we are a mad dog chasing its tail. The “enemy” is so invisible and [...]

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The Truth and some Perspective on Coronavirus and the 2020 Hysteria

By Erik Zimerman On March 8, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Having limited time to write, and seemingly unlimited topics of importance to write about, I have until now refrained from writing in any depth about the current COVID-19 outbreak and the media-fueled hysteria relating to it. From the get-go, one thing that seemed apparent, was that the panic was being sustained by the relative success of the “containment”. If the outbreak died out, as it likely will during the summer months (like other Corona and Influenza viruses tend to do), then the panic would of course subside. But it would also subside if the “pandemic” as they refer to it, simply succeeded in happening, that is breaking out of any type of containment effort. The long limbo state, where the virus seems to have broken out of containment in many countries, but still not certainly since the numbers of confirmed cases are so small (compared to the general populations of these countries), continues to fuel the panic. It is a panic “of the unknown” and based on the fear of what armageddon will occur if the containment fails. Meanwhile, it is coupled with logical economic fears, that people rightfully have about what the panicked voters will force governments to do [...]

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Third Time’s a Charm – 2020 Election

By Erik Zimerman On March 2, 2020 · 1 Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi, Joab's Men

Israel is back at polls today for the third time in less than a year. This has been rather well covered in The Lighthouse, and basically despite the media’s best efforts, in collusion (to use one of their favorite recent rends) with the upper echelons of the police and legal system, will likely I predict, fail to unseat Bibi Netanyahu, and the right leaning government he leads! The above forces were found wanting from the very first of these 3 elections, as they were in the second and as I hope they will be on this third. The compounded problem was the unusual behavior of Mr. Avigdor Lieberman, who usually is a stalwart in any right wing government. I have covered that at length elsewhere including my piece on his talk I attended where he aimed to explain his outlook. Either way, between 7-9 Knesset seats’ worth of votes from the most right leaning voters in Israel being discarded (as happened in the first election), to the record high Arab turnout in the second election, the right and Bibi in particular have faced some perfect storms. They have perceived, and I am proud to say, despite all the naysayers and [...]

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Iran’s Soleimani killed, the Real Consequences and Israel’s Opportunity

By Erik Zimerman On January 4, 2020 · Add Comment · In Avvisi, Joab's Men

Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s powerful head of its Al-Quds force, was killed by a US drone strike in Iraq hours ago, on US President Trump’s orders. There are several likely predictions for the short term consequences among pundits, most as usual quite wrong. Many on the pro Israel “fake right” as I like to call it, are excited about one of the likely outcomes the pundits are undoubtedly screaming about, and think this will be wonderful news for Israel. Far from it, and I hope we can avoid this “likely” option for Israel’s sake, as it will indeed not be wonderful news at all for Israel, but the contrary, and therefore I am happy to report that this chain of events is not as likely as some folks “in the know” tend to think. I will explain these aspects in due course, but first to the two erroneous predictions that are probably already being or will be shouted from the sensationalist roof tops. One of course will be the “You have unleashed the Iranian Tiger”. This sort of thinking was already reported by the not so bright and wannabe tough guy Geraldo Rivera. “This is huge,” Rivera said. “That does not [...]

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