Egypt Coup?

There… it looks like it finally happened…

though the army, Suleiman and the regime seemd to have remained behind Mubarak inspite huge internal and external pressure. The Egyptian rabble, though it seemed to be withering away, it was a mistake to release the Google engineer which re-energized the protests. The army seems to have failed to stop to let water, food and people back into the square. Haad they, not people slowly would leave and not come back, but they were able to refresh at home and come back.

Finally, it seems the country wide strikes, (which are much more political than the so called facebook youth in the square) that paralyzed the rest of the economy are too much.

The army now fears Friday’s violence in state government, and though Suleiman warned of a coup the last few days if protesters did not stop, it seems it is here.

Again, due to this warning, and the fact there has not been any visible signs of military activity against Mubarak, it is still possible that they are acting together, the army and the regime. Certainly the concept of a military coup will split the opposition, with the very pro democracy youth and the Muslim brotherhood being very much against an army coup, and the more average Egyptian being quite happy with it as long as Mubarak stepped down. So this may be a way to preserve what is left of the regime, and it may include Mubarak quitting.

On the other hand, it could have been a real coup, whereby Mubarak refused to give up until the Generals told him there is no more time. If this is so, the army now in charge will be much less tolerant of the Muslim Brotherhood and the protestors in general. It will also not be too keen on fast Democratic reform, and Egypt could find itself in prolong civil disobedience and even low intensity conflict or revolution if the rabble attempts to resist the army.

The difference being, that the Generals need not be so scared of the Generals, as the civilian regime had to be. They know they hold the strength. It takes quite a bit of time, for other younger officers to attemept other coups as is seen in many military regimes plagued by coups.

Well, hopefully Mubarak still does not go, it has been great to see an 83 year old man resist the peasants with such dignity. It has been amazing to see the Obama administration, so quickly throw the 30 year US Ally under the bus at the  first sign of protests, and then subsequently take their words back, and back him (as they were explained certain realities). They are truly over their heads when it comes to foreign relations. And now that they “backed” him, it seems they have failed again as it was too little too late.

If he does resign today or very soon, I commend him for the fight. This character is why he was one of the few Egyptians who actually was able to put a decent fight against Israel. The rabble, as usual, has little use for heroes.

And if it was a coup, the Egyptians are in for a long mess. It means the Generals failed to have loyalty at the end of the day, and those who fail to be loyal can usually not count on much loyalty themselves. Certainly not in the short term. The opposition will splinter, and things will get quite chaotic after a very brief period or respite after the “success” of bringing down Mubarak.

As for our national interests? Good, let their be chaos, let the army melt away, let muslim extremists take over Egypt with a weakened non progessional army (they will replace the generals with other islamists with no military experience), let them cancel the Camp David Accords, and let us take back the Sinai and not give away for peace. Twice is enough, fool me thrice…