Vindicating our earlier post:

Yahoo headlines likely wrong:

This new headline on Yahoo News via Reuters report that the man arrested that was being reported yesterday as El Chapo’s son was in fact previously unknown car dealer.

Mexico got wrong man in high-profile drug arrest: lawyer

Yahoo and other major news outlets corrected their story about one day after the likely confusion was reported here.

Ironically, Yahoo news and Reuters are still not reporting that it IS in fact the wrong man (note the above headline is attributed to the suspect’s lawyer) though they had no problem reporting that it WAS Guzman without qualifications when first reporting he had been arrested.

The Mexican government is however way ahead of the mainstream news media (who is trying to protect Obama from another embarrassing story) and already admitted that they have the wrong man. A more truthful version of the Reuters story would state that the suspect’s lawyer AND the Mexican government now agree it is a case of mistaken identity. Instead, they are going on reporting falsely that the Mexican government is still hoping to prove the identity by DNA tests. It is utter desperation from the leftist media hoping a miracle turns a bad story into a good one. Why?

Well this was a US and DEA led sting operation. US intelligence led the Mexican Marines to the arrest. Of course Mexico showed incompetence in parading around the suspect, who in fact was  Felix Beltran (a car dealer according to his attorney) as Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar (son of Joaquin Guzman “El Chapo”, likely the world’s most wanted man) before checking this fact. Both administrations, Calderon’s in Mexico and Obama’s in the US are facing upcoming elections and the polls do not look good. A major bust of this magnitude in a joint operation would have been a big boost for both. Instead, they have on their hands a bungled mess.

This leads to a very important question not being asked by the media (who are still a few days behind on this story in even admitting it happened). A suspect being accused of being the world’s most wanted drug lord’s son who is not in fact him would have been screaming this from the first moment. Though we cannot know what happened under interrogation, the man was paraded around for Mexican media, presented as Guzman, and he never yelled out that he was not him. Of course, he must me instructed not to speak during these events, but in such an extreme case, almost anyone would want to yell out to the media that you are someone else because once it is out, the public’s investigation is likely to dig out the truth and hold the government responsible for your safety and release. Otherwise, anything could happen, including your “disappearance” or sudden death while under custody when the government realizes you are the wrong man.

As stated before, it points to a measure of incompetence on the Mexican authorities side that they presented the suspect for the camera’s before being sure of his identity. However, IF the man had been screaming that he was not in fact Guzman, stating his real name, offering proof and contact information of people who can verify this (like his mother who appeared in a press conference with his attorney), then the incompetence would border on insanity. Most of the high ranking drug lords arrested in the past, have never disputed their identity, rarely even their innocence. In Mexico, it would be pretty pointless. “La Barbie”, the well born Texas known drug lord who previously worked with the Beltran-Leyva cartel, was said to have immediately admitted his name and “profession” to his arresting officers.

In any event, these circumstances seem strange, as does the fact that a “car dealer” would be found with 135 – 165 thousand dollars, automatic weapons and grenades. This leads to the question, Why would the DEA have thought that this was in fact, El Chapo’s son, Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar?

A possibility which the evidence begins to allow here, is that this was a setup! Whitey Bulger (The Departed) style, where the underworld “sets up” the authorities instead of the other way around.  The DEA must have heard some people, electronic communication and/or informers referring to the suspect as Alfredo Guzman and his hideout. Was this “car dealer” passing himself as him simply to be feared and respected? Anyone would know this would lead to a quick arrest.  Or, was he part of an involved scheme set up by the Sinaloa Cartel to fool the US and Mexican authorities?

A classic way to root out rats of any organization is to feed several suspected members wrong information, and see if (and which one) ends up in the hands of your enemy. The Cartel must have told at someone Guzman’s son was holed up where he was not.

The most interesting scenario is politically motivated. By feeding this wrong information to the intelligence services, Sinaloa could be relatively sure that the authorities would act shortly BEFORE the elections to maximize its positive effect. Ironically, this is now maximizing its negative one. The suspect seems to have been instructed to keep his mouth shut, play along and not to worry. As soon as the Mexican government announced his capture, then only after did his attorney and other forces show up in strength declaring him to be Felix Beltran. It seems everyone was first waiting for the bungled media circus.

The US, the PAN’s presidential candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota, the DEA, and Mexican President Calderon himself all lauded and praised the arrest before the truth was known (but after the suspect had been in front of the cameras). This is a big gaffe and embarrassment to all above. What would be Sinaloa’s interest politically?

To try to set up your adversary is natural enough as it is without more complex reasons needed, but they sophistication and timing of this operation seems highly political. It is less likely that the cartel would have any interest in embarrassing Obama. However, it wold be very normal that they want to politically destroy Calderon, and his political party the PAN who have relentlessly waged war on the cartels throughout his administration.  It also points out to the possibility, Sinaloa is interested in a PRI resurgence (the party that ruled Mexico for many quiet decades, when as long as drugs were quietly sent to the US without being sold in Mexico and without cartel violence, their presence was tolerated). This could further mean that Sinaloa has made a deal with the PRI. In exchange for a return to the quiet ways, the government would support Sinaloa in crushing the more bloody Zetas cartel. With Sinaloa firmly in control, the flow of drugs into the US would continue, there would be money and bribes for everyone, but no more mass graves, headless bodies and wars in the streets. The PRI could claim a sort of victory on the drug war with having crushed at least some cartels and returned the country to normalcy and the troops to their barracks. If this is the type of deal that has been forged, then with this setup, the Sinaloa Cartel definitely most likely hammered in the last nail in the PAN’s chances in this election and assured the PRI of victory next week.

The USA gets the unintended benefit of having made Obama just a little bit less likely to be re-elected, and thus a chance at a longer survival.